Zerbini AN et al. (2019), Assessing the recovery of an Antarctic predator...

ECB-ART-48752

R Soc Open Sci 2019 Oct 01;610:190368. doi: 10.1098/rsos.190368.

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Assessing the recovery of an Antarctic predator from historical exploitation.

Zerbini AN , Adams G , Best J , Clapham PJ , Jackson JA , Punt AE .

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The recovery of whale populations from centuries of exploitation will have important management and ecological implications due to greater exposure to anthropogenic activities and increasing prey consumption. Here, a Bayesian population model integrates catch data, estimates of abundance, and information on genetics and biology to assess the recovery of western South Atlantic (WSA) humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae). Modelling scenarios evaluated the sensitivity of model outputs resulting from the use of different data, different model assumptions and uncertainty in catch allocation and in accounting for whales killed but not landed. A long period of exploitation drove WSA humpback whales to the brink of extinction. They declined from nearly 27 000 (95% PI = 22 800-33 000) individuals in 1830 to only 450 (95% PI = 200-1400) whales in the mid-1950s. Protection led to a strong recovery and the current population is estimated to be at 93% (95% PI = 73-100%) of its pre-exploitation size. The recovery of WSA humpback whales may result in large removals of their primary prey, the Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba), and has the potential to modify the community structure in their feeding grounds. Continued monitoring is needed to understand how these whales will respond to modern threats and to climate-driven changes to their habitats.

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Genes referenced: LOC115925415

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	Figure 1. WSA humpback whale population range in the wintering grounds and areas for allocation of catches in the feeding grounds.
	Figure 2. Estimated population trajectory and time series of catches of WSA humpback whales. The solid grey line represents the model-averaged median trajectory, and the dark and light shaded areas correspond, respectively, to the 50 and 95% PIs. The dashed black line represents the median trajectory for the RC scenario, and the red line represents the catches, with shaded areas corresponding to uncertainty in the pre-modern whaling catches. The model is fit to the absolute abundance estimates in 2008 and 2012 (black dots with confidence interval) and the model predicted abundance estimates in the same years (grey dots with confidence interval).
	Figure 3. Posterior probability distribution of selected parameters and quantities of interest in the assessment of WSA humpback whales. Boxplots show, for each scenario, the median (solid line), the mean (dashed line), the inter-quartile (the box) and the range (whiskers). The dashed grey lines across the plots represent the median and range of the RC scenario. Labels R and MA in the x-axis represent RC and model average, respectively. All other labels correspond to the sensitivity scenarios specified in table 6. The relative probabilities (Bayes factor, BF) are shown for each relevant scenario.