Jenkins TL and Stevens JR (2022), Predicting habitat suitability and range shifts...

ECB-ART-50297

PeerJ 2022 Oct 06;10:e13509. doi: 10.7717/peerj.13509.

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Predicting habitat suitability and range shifts under projected climate change for two octocorals in the north-east Atlantic.

Jenkins TL , Stevens JR .

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Species distribution models have become a valuable tool to predict the distribution of species across geographic space and time. In this study, maximum entropy models were constructed for two temperate shallow-water octocoral species, the pink sea fan (Eunicella verrucosa) and dead man's fingers (Alcyonium digitatum), to investigate and compare habitat suitability. The study area covered the north-east Atlantic from the Bay of Biscay to the British Isles and southern Norway; this area includes both the northern range of E. verrucosa and the middle-northern range of A. digitatum. The optimal models for each species showed that, overall, slope, temperature at the seafloor and wave orbital velocity were important predictors of distribution in both species. Predictions of habitat suitability showed areas of present-day (1951-2000) suitable habitat where colonies have not yet been observed, particularly for E. verrucosa, where areas beyond its known northern range limit were identified. Moreover, analysis with future layers (2081-2100) of temperature and oxygen concentration predicted a sizable increase in habitat suitability for E. verrucosa beyond these current range limits under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. This suggests that projected climate change may induce a potential range expansion northward for E. verrucosa, although successful colonisation would also be conditional on other factors such as dispersal and interspecific competition. For A. digitatum, this scenario of projected climate change may result in more suitable habitat in higher latitudes, but, as with E. verrucosa, there is a degree of uncertainty in the model predictions. Importantly, the results from this study highlight present-day areas of high habitat suitability which, if combined with knowledge on population density, could be used to identify priority areas to enhance protection and ensure the long-term survival of these octocoral species in the region.

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	Figure 1. Present-day distribution of the pink sea fan (Eunicella verrucosa) and dead man’s fingers (Alcyonium digitatum) across the study area.This area includes the northern range of E. verrucosa and the middle-northern range of A. digitatum in the north-east Atlantic Ocean. Presence records were collated from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) and from screening primary literature and reports.
	Figure 2. Kernel density estimates for the pink sea fan (Eunicella verrucosa) and dead man’s fingers (Alcyonium digitatum).Each panel represents the kernel density estimates for a predictor variable for E. verrucosa (pink) and A. digitatum (blue) across the study area using the thinned presence points. Further details and units are presented in Table 1.
	Figure 3. Importance of each predictor variable to fitting the optimal Maxent model.Percentages for percent contribution and permutation importance are shown for the pink sea fan (Eunicella verrucosa) and dead man’s fingers (Alcyonium digitatum).
	Figure 4. Present-day predictions of habitat suitability.Present-day predictions of habitat suitability for the pink sea fan (Eunicella verrucosa) and dead man’s fingers (Alcyonium digitatum) based on the optimal Maxent model.
	Figure 5. Comparison of present-day and future predictions of habitat suitability.Comparison of present-day and future predictions (2081–2100) of habitat suitability under the RCP 8.5 scenario for the pink sea fan (Eunicella verrucosa; top) and dead man’s fingers (Alcyonium digitatum; bottom) based on the optimal Maxent model. Layers that were static and dynamic in time are detailed in Table 1.

References [+] :

Araújo, Standards for distribution models in biodiversity assessments. 2019, Pubmed