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PLoS One
2013 Jan 01;85:e61175. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0061175.
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Long-term trends in calcifying plankton and pH in the North Sea.
Beare D
,
McQuatters-Gollop A
,
van der Hammen T
,
Machiels M
,
Teoh SJ
,
Hall-Spencer JM
.
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Relationships between six calcifying plankton groups and pH are explored in a highly biologically productive and data-rich area of the central North Sea using time-series datasets. The long-term trends show that abundances of foraminiferans, coccolithophores, and echinoderm larvae have risen over the last few decades while the abundances of bivalves and pteropods have declined. Despite good coverage of pH data for the study area there is uncertainty over the quality of this historical dataset; pH appears to have been declining since the mid 1990s but there was no statistical connection between the abundance of the calcifying plankton and the pH trends. If there are any effects of pH on calcifying plankton in the North Sea they appear to be masked by the combined effects of other climatic (e.g. temperature), chemical (nutrient concentrations) and biotic (predation) drivers. Certain calcified plankton have proliferated in the central North Sea, and are tolerant of changes in pH that have occurred since the 1950s but bivalve larvae and pteropods have declined. An improved monitoring programme is required as ocean acidification may be occurring at a rate that will exceed the environmental niches of numerous planktonic taxa, testing their capacities for acclimation and genetic adaptation.
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23658686
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Figure 1. Area ‘4B’ in the North Sea based on a classification due to the International Council for the exploration of the Sea (ICES).Black dots in ‘4B’ are the sample locations for all the ICES oceanography data, while the red dots are the 6229 stations at which pH measurements were also done.
Figure 2. Calcifying plankton: (a) Emiliania huxleyi (Photo credit, G. Hallegraef); (b) Foraminiferan Globerigina spp.(Photo credit, J. Bijma); (c) Echinocardium spp. larvae (Photo credit, R. Kirby); (d) Bivalve larvae (Photo credit, R. Kirby); (e) Clione limacina (Photo credit, R. Hopcroft); and (f) Limacina helicina (Photo credit, R. Hopcroft).
Figure 3. Long-term changes in the abundance of calcifiying plankton in ICES area ‘4B’ between 1958 and 2010.
Figure 4. Long-term change in oceanographic variables between 1958 and 2010.Blue dotted line is the average and the red line is the long-term trend estimated using super-smoother.
Figure 5. Long-term trends in the abundance of calcifying plankton between 1958 and 2010.The trends were estimated using Friedman's super-smoother in which abundance is modeled as a function of long-term trend.
Figure 6. Predicted values from the harmonic seasonal regression models fitted to bivalves, Clione, thecosomes and pH (ie. output from models 1,2,3 & 4).
Figure 7. Seasonality in pH, bivalve, Clione and thecosome abundance in ICES area 4B (i.e. output from models 1,2,3 & 4).
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