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PLoS One
2019 Nov 15;1411:e0224887. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0224887.
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Carbonate production of Micronesian reefs suppressed by thermal anomalies and Acanthaster as sea-level rises.
van Woesik R
,
Cacciapaglia CW
.
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Coral reefs are essential to millions of island inhabitants. Yet, coral reefs are threatened by thermal anomalies associated with climate change and by local disturbances that include land-use change, pollution, and the coral-eating sea star Acanthaster solaris. In combination, these disturbances cause coral mortality that reduce the capacity of reefs to produce enough carbonate to keep up with sea-level rise. This study compared the reef-building capacity of shallow-water inner, patch, and outer reefs in the two islands of Pohnpei and Kosrae, Federated States of Micronesia. We identified which reefs were likely to keep up with sea-level rise under different climate-change scenarios, and estimated whether there were differences across habitats in the threshold of percentage coral cover at which net carbonate production becomes negative. We also quantified the influence of A. solaris on carbonate production. Whereas the northwestern outer reefs of Pohnpei and Kosrae had the highest net rates of carbonate production (18.5 and 16.4 kg CaCO3 m-2 yr-1, respectively), the southeastern outer reefs had the lowest rates of carbonate production (1.2-1.3 and 0.7 kg CaCO3 m-2 yr-1, respectively). The patch reefs of Pohnpei had on average higher net carbonate production rates (9.5 kg CaCO3 m-2 yr-1) than the inner reefs of both Pohnpei and Kosrae (7.0 and 7.8 kg CaCO3 m-2 yr-1, respectively). A. solaris were common on Kosrae and caused an average reduction in carbonate production of 0.6 kg CaCO3 m-2 yr-1 on Kosraean reefs. Northern outer reefs are the most likely habitats to keep up with sea-level rise in both Pohnpei and Kosrae. Overall, the inner reefs of Pohnpei and Kosrae need ~ 5.5% more coral cover to generate the same amount of carbonate as outer reefs. Therefore, inner reefs need special protection from land-use change and local pollution to keep pace with sea-level rise under all climate-change scenarios.
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Fig 1. Net shallow-water coral-reef carbonate production stratified by (a) island, (b) habitat type (at both Kosrae and Pohnpei inner reefs and outer reefs, and Pohnpei patch reefs), and (c) site (at 24 sites in Pohnpei and 24 sites in Kosrae, Federated States of Micronesia) 2018. The thick horizontal lines are the medians, the box surrounding the medians are the first and third quartiles, the whiskers identify the range of the data, and the circles identify outliers. These data do not include the erosional effects of Acanthaster solaris.
Fig 2. Spatial kriging of the net shallow-water coral-reef carbonate production (kg CaCO3 m-2 yr-1) without the influence of Acanthaster, for 24 sites in Pohnpei, Federated States of Micronesia, 2018.Base elevation map was plotted in R using raw 10 m Digital Elevation Model from https://pae-paha.pacioos.hawaii.edu/thredds/ncss/usgs_dem_10m_pohnpei/dataset.html.
Fig 3. Spatial kriging of the net shallow-water coral-reef carbonate production (kg CaCO3 m-2 yr-1) without the influence of Acanthaster, for 24 sites in Kosrae, Federated States of Micronesia, 2018.Base elevation map was plotted in R using raw 10 m Digital Elevation Model from https://pae-paha.pacioos.hawaii.edu/thredds/ncss/usgs_dem_10m_kosrae/dataset.html.
Fig 4. Cumulative shallow-water coral-reef carbonate production by coral species and other benthic taxa for (a) 24 sites in Pohnpei and (b) 24 sites in Kosrae, Federated States of Micronesia, 2018.
Fig 5. Percent threshold live coral cover (LCC) needed to maintain net positive accretion stratified by shallow-water coral-reef habitat (at both Kosrae and Pohnpei inner reefs and outer reefs, and Pohnpei patch reefs) for (a) 24 sites in Pohnpei and (b) 24 sites in Kosrae, Federated States of Micronesia, 2018. The dots represent the posterior means and the vertical lines represent the 95% credible intervals.
Fig 6. The effect of Acanthaster solaris on the net shallow-water coral-reef carbonate production of Pohnpei, Federated States of Micronesia, 2018 where the size of the bubble is proportional to the carbonate reduction by A. solaris.Plain magenta dots are sites that had no observed A. solaris. Base elevation map was plotted in R using raw 10 m Digital Elevation Model from https://pae-paha.pacioos.hawaii.edu/thredds/ncss/usgs_dem_10m_pohnpei/dataset.html.
Fig 7. The effect of Acanthaster solaris on the net shallow-water coral-reef carbonate production of Kosrae, Federated States of Micronesia, 2018 where the size of the bubble is proportional to the carbonate reduction by A. solaris.Plain magenta dots are sites that had no observed A. solaris. Base elevation map was plotted in R using raw 10 m Digital Elevation Model from https://pae-paha.pacioos.hawaii.edu/thredds/ncss/usgs_dem_10m_kosrae/dataset.html.
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