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Ecology
2020 May 01;1015:e02993. doi: 10.1002/ecy.2993.
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Trophic redundancy and predator size class structure drive differences in kelp forest ecosystem dynamics.
Eisaguirre JH
,
Eisaguirre JM
,
Davis K
,
Carlson PM
,
Gaines SD
,
Caselle JE
.
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Ecosystems are changing at alarming rates because of climate change and a wide variety of other anthropogenic stressors. These stressors have the potential to cause phase shifts to less productive ecosystems. A major challenge for ecologists is to identify ecosystem attributes that enhance resilience and can buffer systems from shifts to less desirable alternative states. In this study, we used the Northern Channel Islands, California, as a model kelp forest ecosystem that had been perturbed from the loss of an important sea star predator due to a sea star wasting disease. To determine the mechanisms that prevent phase shifts from productive kelp forests to less productive urchin barrens, we compared pre- and postdisease predator assemblages as predictors of purple urchin densities. We found that prior to the onset of the disease outbreak, the sunflower sea star exerted strong predation pressures and was able to suppress purple urchin populations effectively. After the disease outbreak, which functionally extirpated the sunflower star, we found that the ecosystem response-urchin and algal abundances-depended on the abundance and/or size of remaining predator species. Inside Marine Protected Areas (MPAs), the large numbers and sizes of other urchin predators suppressed purple urchin populations resulting in kelp and understory algal growth. Outside of the MPAs, where these alternative urchin predators are fished, less abundant, and smaller, urchin populations grew dramatically in the absence of sunflower stars resulting in less kelp at these locations. Our results demonstrate that protected trophic redundancy inside MPAs creates a net of stability that could limit kelp forest ecosystem phase shifts to less desirable, alternative states when perturbed. This highlights the importance of harboring diversity and managing predator guilds.
Figure 1. (a) Approximate current (solid lines) and historical (dotted lines) distribution along the Pacific coast of major predators of purple and red sea urchins. (Estes and Duggins 1995, Pringle 2011, Bodkin 2015, Pondella et al. 2015, Fishbase.org). California sheephead and spiny lobster historical and current ranges are the same, so only current range is shown. Map of North America is projected in North America Albers Equal Area Conic for display purposes. (b) Study sites and Nearshore State Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) located at the Northern Channel Islands (NCI).
Figure 2. Temporal patterns of key members of the kelp forest community and sea surface temperature from 2010 to 2017. Solid lines are marine protected areas (MPA) sites, dashed lines are reference sites. All species data are mean density (per 60 m2) ± 1 standard error. (a) Sunflower sea star and temperature (°C), (b) California (CA) sheephead, (c) California spiny lobster, (d) purple urchin, (e) giant kelp, and (f) understory kelp.
Figure 3. Empirical data (filled circles) and model prediction (line) of purple urchin densities (per 60 m2) with temperature, depth, and sunflower sea star densities (per 60 m2) as predictors with 95% prediction intervals both inside marine protected areas (MPAs) and reference sites at the Western Northern Channel Islands.
Figure 4. Predictions of purple urchin densities (per 60 m2) from model containing temperature, depth, California (CA) sheephead abundance (per site [1,440 m2]), and CA sheephead total length (TL) as predictors with 95% prediction intervals (dotted lines) (a) inside MPAs and (b) at reference sites at the Western Northern Channel Islands. CA sheephead lines indicate smallâsized CA sheephead = 24.57 cm TL (red line; quartile 1 of CA sheephead TL), medium = 31.50 cm TL (blue line; quartile 2 of CA sheephead TL), large = 38.15 cm TL (black line; quartile 3 of CA sheephead TL).
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