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The global acidification of the earth''s oceans is predicted to impact biodiversity via physiological effects impacting growth, survival, reproduction, and immunology, leading to changes in species abundances and global distributions. However, the degree to which these changes will play out critically depends on the evolutionary rate at which populations will respond to natural selection imposed by ocean acidification, which remains largely unquantified. Here we measure the potential for an evolutionary response to ocean acidification in larval development rate in two coastal invertebrates using a full-factorial breeding design. We show that the sea urchin species Strongylocentrotus franciscanus has vastly greater levels of phenotypic and genetic variation for larval size in future CO(2) conditions compared to the mussel species Mytilus trossulus. Using these measures we demonstrate that S. franciscanus may have faster evolutionary responses within 50 years of the onset of predicted year-2100 CO(2) conditions despite having lower population turnover rates. Our comparisons suggest that information on genetic variation, phenotypic variation, and key demographic parameters, may lend valuable insight into relative evolutionary potentials across a large number of species.
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21857962
???displayArticle.pmcLink???PMC3153472 ???displayArticle.link???PLoS One
Figure 1. Variation in larval size under low and high CO2 conditions in M. trossulus and S. franciscanus.(A) M. trossulus larva at 65 h of development. (B,C) Variation in M. trossulus size at 65 hours in ambient CO2 (light grey) elevated CO2 (dark gray). (D) S. franciscanus larva at 7 days of development. (E,F) Variation in S. franciscanus size after 5 days in ambient CO2 (light grey) and elevated CO2 (dark gray). Vertical bars indicate ±1 standard deviation from the mean. The same data are shown partitioned among (E) sires and (F) dams. Horizontal lines represent means for ambient (dashed), and high (solid) CO2 treatments. Heritability calculated from sire-based additive genetic variance, and maternal effects indicating variance attributed to dams over-and-above sire-based heritability, are given for each treatment and each species (h2 = heritability, m2 = maternal effects). Lines on micrographs in (A) and (D) show linear measurements used to calculate rod lengths. Scale bars are 50 um in (A), and 150 um in (D).
Figure 2. Phenotypic variation in planktonic duration at high CO2 before and after simulated selection for (A) M. trossulus and (B) S. franciscanus.Variation in planktonic duration was approximated from variation in size-at-day for either species under high CO2. Frequency of phenotypes before selection (dark bars) and after selection (light bars) are shown.
Figure 3. Summary of simulated evolution over 50 years, using different underlying heritabilities and population turnover rates.Solid vertical lines indicate the estimated mean planktonic duration at elevated CO2, and dashed vertical lines indicate mean planktonic duration at ambient CO2, or the ‘target’ of selection, for (A) M. trossulus and (B) S. franciscanus. Grey shading along the y-axis shows the range of possible heritabilities given maternal-effect heritability of 0 to 100%. Arrowheads indicate the mean phenotype after 50 years of evolution, and arrow lengths indicate the change in mean phenotype from the initial mean phenotype towards the target of selection. Population turnover rates used in simulations are shown in colour. Higher turnover rates are shown for M. trossulus (0.3–0.9) compared to S. franciscanus (0.1–0.5) to reflect known differences in species' demography (see methods).
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