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Sci Rep
2015 Feb 12;5:8402. doi: 10.1038/srep08402.
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Climate change as an unexpected co-factor promoting coral eating seastar (Acanthaster planci) outbreaks.
Uthicke S
,
Logan M
,
Liddy M
,
Francis D
,
Hardy N
,
Lamare M
.
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Coral reefs face a crisis due to local and global anthropogenic stressors. A large proportion of the ~50% coral loss on the Great Barrier Reef has been attributed to outbreaks of the crown-of-thorns-seastar (COTS). A widely assumed cause of primary COTS outbreaks is increased larval survivorship due to higher food availability, linked with anthropogenic runoff . Our experiment using a range of algal food concentrations at three temperatures representing present day average and predicted future increases, demonstrated a strong influence of food concentration on development is modulated by temperature. A 2°C increase in temperature led to a 4.2-4.9 times (at Day 10) or 1.2-1.8 times (Day 17) increase in late development larvae. A model indicated that food was the main driver, but that temperature was an important modulator of development. For instance, at 5000 cells ml(-1) food, a 2°C increase may shorten developmental time by 30% and may increase the probability of survival by 240%. The main contribution of temperature is to ''push'' well-fed larvae faster to settlement. We conclude that warmer sea temperature is an important co-factor promoting COTS outbreaks.
Figure 1. Developmental stages of Acanthaster planci.Stages shown are early and mid bipinnaria (A, B), early, mid and late brachiolaria (C–E), and a recently settled juvenile (F).
Figure 2. The effect of increased food and temperature on the percentage of late development Acanthaster planci larvae.Effects after 10d of development (A) are additive, and synergistic after 17d (B, significant interaction term present, see Table 1). After longer periods (C, 24d) low algae concentrations are still limiting development but temperature has no further enhancing effect. Dotted lines: 95% confidence interval or the fit.
Figure 3. Level plots (based on LOESS fitting) illustrating the combined effects of food (algal cells ml−1) and increased temperature on the speed of development of Acanthaster planci larvae (A). B) Illustrates the effect of faster development and resulting shorter planktonic developmental time. The survival probability for the fastest developing larvae under each treatment were calculated assuming a daily mortality rate of M = −0.16.
Figure 4. Biometric analyses of Acanthaster planci larvae at day 10 and 24 of their development under different algal concentrations and temperatures.Food concentrations are indicated by colour (see legend) and samples from the same temperature are surrounded by red outlines. In addition, temperature treatments are indicated by different symbols (28°C: circles, 29°C: squares, 28°C: diamonds). Black vectors are the individual biometric measures (BL: Body Length, BW: Body Width, GH: Gut Hood, GL: Gut Length, GW: Gut Width, MH: Mouth Hood, MW: Mouth Width) and green vectors represent the environmental variables. Analyses and plots are based on average values per replicated experimental container.
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