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Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci
2016 Mar 05;3711689:. doi: 10.1098/rstb.2015.0208.
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Improving marine disease surveillance through sea temperature monitoring, outlooks and projections.
Maynard J
,
van Hooidonk R
,
Harvell CD
,
Eakin CM
,
Liu G
,
Willis BL
,
Williams GJ
,
Groner ML
,
Dobson A
,
Heron SF
,
Glenn R
,
Reardon K
,
Shields JD
.
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To forecast marine disease outbreaks as oceans warm requires new environmental surveillance tools. We describe an iterative process for developing these tools that combines research, development and deployment for suitable systems. The first step is to identify candidate host-pathogen systems. The 24 candidate systems we identified include sponges, corals, oysters, crustaceans, sea stars, fishes and sea grasses (among others). To illustrate the other steps, we present a case study of epizootic shell disease (ESD) in the American lobster. Increasing prevalence of ESD is a contributing factor to lobster fishery collapse in southern New England (SNE), raising concerns that disease prevalence will increase in the northern Gulf of Maine under climate change. The lowest maximum bottom temperature associated with ESD prevalence in SNE is 12 °C. Our seasonal outlook for 2015 and long-term projections show bottom temperatures greater than or equal to 12 °C may occur in this and coming years in the coastal bays of Maine. The tools presented will allow managers to target efforts to monitor the effects of ESD on fishery sustainability and will be iteratively refined. The approach and case example highlight that temperature-based surveillance tools can inform research, monitoring and management of emerging and continuing marine disease threats.
Figure 1. Process for development of temperature-based disease surveillance tools. The three-part research process concludes with assessing disease predictability and then either proceeding with product development and deployment or continuing to undertake research. Product deployment is not an endpoint as tools are iteratively evaluated and continually improved through research and end-user consultation.
Figure 2. Examples from coral reefs relating bleaching observations and the diseases known as ‘white syndromes' to thermal stress metrics. The metrics here are degree heating days (DHDs) and the mean positive summer anomaly (‘heating rate’ on left), both of which represent stress accumulation above a baseline (average of maximum warm season temperatures). Elucidating these host–disease temperature relationships is the foundation upon which temperature-based disease surveillance tools are built ((a) is an adapted version of fig. 3 in [25] and (b) is reproduced here with permission from Coral Reefs [17]).
Figure 3. Examples of the American lobster, H. americanus, affected by epizootic shell disease (ESD). ESD is characterized by extensive necrosis of the cuticle and surrounding cuticular tissues as chitinoblastic and other bacteria colonize the shell. Severity of the infection varies greatly depending on maturity of the animals, which drives intermoult duration, and the local temperature conditions and water quality. Severely infected animals die owing to the disease. Even animals with light infections on the carapace are not marketable in the lucrative live trade so have less than 10% the value of a healthy animal.
Figure 4. Maps describing aspects of the product development process for the initial versions of the lobster shell disease surveillance tools presented in figure 5. Performance of our modelled bottom temperatures is shown in (a); our modelled bottom temperatures are cooler and within 1.5°C (usually less) of observed bottom temperatures from the World Oceans Analysis dataset. The maximum of the monthly mean (MMM) values are shown in (b); the lowest MMM in the area where ESD prevalence is more than 5% is 12°C and MMM values in Maine were 7–11°C for the study period. The linear trend in modelled bottom temperatures is shown in (c); rates of temperature increase range from 0 to more than 0.3°C per decade.
Figure 5. Initial versions of three surveillance tools developed for lobster shell disease. Near real-time monitoring (a) for 15 September 2014 shows modelled bottom temperatures (based on satellite SST) were greater than or equal to 12°C in southern New England and less than 12°C in the northern Gulf of Maine. The seasonal outlook (b) for September 2015 as of June 2015 suggested temperatures would be greater than 12°C in parts of the northern Gulf of Maine in 2015 (90+% probability). The long-term projections (c) suggest bottom temperatures will be greater than or equal to 12°C in the next 20 years in more than half of the coastal fishery in the northern Gulf of Maine and for southern coastal Nova Scotia. Data are only shown for (b) and (c) for depths less than 100 m.
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